Today I offer my 10th piece of evidence for rejecting the idea that “Police Target Black Men!”
10.In the Washington Post article, “Aren’t More White People than Black people Killed by Police, Yes but No” author Wesley Lowery concludes, “White people make up roughly 62 percent of the U.S. population but only about 49 percent of those who are killed by police officers. African Americans, however, account for 24 percent of those fatally shot and killed by the police despite being just 13 percent of the U.S. population. The Post then made the conclusion in that article that based upon those statistics, that “black Americans are 2.5 times as likely as white Americans to be shot and killed by police officers.”
To the contrary, in a Frontpage Magazine article published around the same date, criminology professor Peter Moskos based upon his own statistical analysis is cited as disagreeing with Lowery’s conclusions. He reached the conclusion that “Adjusted for the homicide rate… whites are 1.7 times more likely than blacks to die at the hands of police.”
So, who is right?
Since January 1, 2015 the Washington Post has been keeping track of police shootings and killings on their website located at Police shootings database 2015-2021 - Washington Post. This website is currently reporting that during the period from 1/1/2015 through July 19, 2021 there has been 6,436 persons shot and killed by police. Broken down by race the deaths were as follows: 2,923 Whites, 1,528 Blacks, 1,066 Hispanics, and 919 others that were unknown.
Professor Moskos’s statistical conclusion in the Frontpage article stated that “whites are 1.7 times more likely than blacks to die at the hands of police.” For his analysis, Moskos used statistics that were available from the Centers for Disease Control for 1999-2014 which reported that 3,421 Whites were killed by police and 1,855 blacks were killed during that same period. The ratio of Whites killed compared to Blacks killed by police for that period is actually 1.8 times more.
If Professor Mosko had used the Washington Post’s statistics shown in the preceding paragraph (2923Whites/1528Blacks), the numbers actually reveal that 1.9 times as many Whites were killed by police in comparison to the number of Blacks killed by police since January 1, 2015.
1.Now, let’s get down to the matter at hand. First, let me address Lowery’s title. The fact that Lowery uses “Yes, but No” at the end, should make any honest person suspicious. Why? His very title obviously asks for ‘numbers’: “Aren’t More White People than Black people Killed by Police”?!? Therefore, because the absolute number of Whites killed by police is, and has always been, more than Blacks, to find a way around this absolutely irrefutable evidence--Lowery simply inserts the phrase “Yes, but No” in order to cast a seed of doubt! In other words, he is saying, “I know numbers are normally hard, indisputable evidence…BUT…let me show you how the numbers can be manipulated to prove that “Police Target Black Men”! On the contrary, when we rationally consider the numbers, “Yes but No” becomes impossible!! Why? I repeat, there is no amount of manipulation ‘in this universe’ that can make the number of 237 Blacks killed by police, more than 453 Whites killed by Police in 2020!!!!
However, the Washington Post does try to justify its methodology in the Lowery article by stating the following: “data scientists and policing experts often note, comparing how many or how often white people are killed by police to how many or how often black people are killed by the police is statistically dubious unless you first adjust for population.” In other words, the WP means, ‘if you don’t do it the way we do it, your argument means nothing!’ I repeat, this is simply a justification!
2.Second, I would like to draw your attention to ‘how’ Lowery arrived at the ‘2.5 times’ number in 2016, and how the Washington Post’s reporting continues to infer that their updated rate of Blacks being killed by police is “more than twice” the rate of Whites.
Remember their numbers from 1/1/15 -7/19/21 report that 2923 Whites & 1528 Blacks have been shot and killed by the police. Let’s review the attached graph; notice:
1.The WP took the total number of Blacks killed by police over
this 6.5 year period, and divided it by the total number of
Blacks: 1528 Blacks killed / 42 million Blacks in America = ‘36
Blacks killed per every one million’ Blacks in America.
2.They also took the total number of Whites killed by police over
a 6.5 year period, and divided it by the total number of Whites
killed in America: 2919 Whites killed / 197 million Whites in
America = ‘14 Whites killed per every one million’ Whites in
3.His conclusion: the number ‘36 per million’ is 2.5 times higher
than ‘14 per million’ –-hence---police kill Blacks at a rate of 2.5
times higher than Whites.
This represents ‘THE’ logic used to justify: 1.protests; 2.the destruction of property; 3.at least 25 people dead; 4.“America is racist!!!” and 5.”White people are racist!!!”
However, following are 4 indisputable problems with Lowery & WP’s conclusions:
1.First, if you take the total numbers of Blacks and Whites killed by police(1528 & 2919) since 1/1/15, and divide it by the total number of people in America(330 million), instead of dividing them by the deaths within their respective races (42 million Blacks, and 197 million Whites), you get ‘4.63 per million’ for Blacks, and ‘8.86 per million’ for Whites. If you compare these two new numbers (4.63 & 8.86) to the original WP numbers of those killed by police, you will find the new numbers actually support the original numbers*; and may I remind you, the original numbers irrefutably reveal Whites are killed by police at nearly double the number of Blacks!!!! I repeat, these two new numbers (4.63 & 8.86) exactly mirror; or reflect; or correspond with, the original numbers of the yearly deaths of Blacks and Whites killed by police! In other words, for example, the original numbers of deaths are: in 2020, 453 Whites and 237 Blacks were killed by police; in 2019, 405 Whites and 249 Blacks were killed by police; and, in 2018, 454 Whites and 229 Blacks, were killed by police, etc. For emphasis I repeat, the ‘new’ numbers agree with the original Washington Post statistics which show Whites are killed at nearly double the rate of Blacks yearly!!! In other words, the new numbers contradict Lowery!
Therefore, the million-dollar question is why did Lowery and the Washington Post choose to use the numbers in each racial group, rather than the numbers of the total population to do his calculations? There can be only one answer—he used the calculations to support the narrative he desired to purport! Benjamin Disraeli once said, “There are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
2.Second, what exactly is the visual of the Washington Post dividing the number of deaths of each race by the population total of that race over the 6.5 year reporting period? (See attached graphic)
i.Blacks as part of the 42 million Black population in America are killed by police at the rate of .000036. This translates to a rate of 36 Blacks killed by police out of every one million Blacks over the 6.5 year reporting period.
ii.Whites as a part of the 197 million White population in America are killed by police at the rate .000014. This translates to 14 White persons killed by police out of every one million Whites over a 6.5 year reporting period.
I repeat, these numbers are from 2015 – 2021, which is a 6.5 year period! Statistically, .000036 and .000014 are so small they become almost insignificant!! Yet again, this is the literal interpretation of the numbers Lowery, the WP, and liberals use as evidence to declare Blacks are killed at the rate of 2.5 times more than Whites!!!!!
3.Moving forward to use the 2020 numbers of Blacks and Whites killed by police: 237 and 453, what then is the imagery of these numbers?
i.In 2020, 41,999,763 (42 million-237) Blacks were not killed by police. This means there is a 99.99943571%** a Black will not be killed by police in America!!!
ii.In 2020, 196,999,547 (197 million -453) Whites were not killed by police. This means there is a 99.99977005%** a White will not be killed by police in America!!!
iii.Once again, statistically speaking, the 99.99943571% for a Black being killed out of the Black population is significantly insignificant in comparison to a White person being killed out of the White population at 99.99977005%
4.Lastly, if we decide to use the total US population number—330 million—instead of individual racial groups, and divide it by the numbers of Blacks and Whites killed in a given year, the answers change even more significantly!!!*** Once again, let’s use the year 2020, where 237 Blacks & 453 Whites were killed:
i.Blacks were killed by police in America at the number 7.18181818E-7
(237/330million). This number means Blacks were killed by police at a
rate of .000000718; which actually equals ‘7.18 per 10 million’
Americans; and is also equivalent ‘0.7 per million’ Americans.
ii.Whites were killed by police in America at the number .0000013727 (453/330 million). This number means Whites were killed by police at a rate of .0000013727, which actually equals ‘13.7 per 10 million’ Americans, which is also equivalent to ‘1.37 per million’ Americans.
iii.Allow to ask a stupid question, so which number is bigger? ‘1.37 million per million’ for Whites or ‘0.7 per million’ for Blacks?***
And how do these numbers actually look?
i.Blacks are not killed by police in America at a percentage of 99.99992818%**** of the time!
ii.Whites are not killed by police in America at a percentage of 99.99986273%**** of the time!
In conclusion, and I repeat, from these ‘miniscule’ numbers, Lowery, the Washington Post, BLM, and liberalism conclude: “Police Target Black Men”!
I have a one-word response: Preposterous!
*See Tidbit 1 in this series for the total number of Whites, Blacks and Hispanics killed by police.
**Blacks: 42 million – 237= 41,999,763 divided by 42 million =99.99943571
Whites: 197 million – 453= 196,999,547 divided by 197 million =99.99977005
***Yet, which size is bigger, Whites or Blacks, is really a mute question because both numbers are still so small!!!!
****Blacks: 330 million – 237=329,999,763 divided by 330 million = 99.99992818
Whites: 330 million – 453 =329,999,547 divided by 330 million = 99.99986273
Real power comes by empowering others. Denis Waitley
In my previous two tidbits I offered 8 reasons the assertion “Police Target Black Men” is incorrect. Let’s continue, this time using numbers!
9. In the same NYT article from my last tidbit, they continued citing the Harvard-trained, Black statistician, Roland Fryer’s study: “There were 1.6 million arrests in Houston in the years(2000-2015) and officers fired their weapons 507 times.”
This is an absolutely INCREDIBLE discovery by Dr Fryer! Why? For two reasons.
i.The number “507”, is the number of times police discharged their guns in 16 years!!!!! 16 years equals 5,840 days (16 x 365)*. That means police fired their guns--not killed people--but fired their guns, once every 11.51 days for 16 years (5840/507)! What does this mean?
a.firing a weapon 507 times in 16 years is not a lot of times
b.firing a weapon once every 11.51 days in the line of duty in an inner city where gang
bangers shoot people nearly daily, once again, is not very many times!
My conclusion? To “target” Blacks means police are intentionally attempting to commit homicide. If police were literally targeting Blacks, it is painfully obvious they would discharge their guns exponentially more times than 507 times during 1.6 million arrests, over 16 years…once again, if they were targeting Blacks!!!
Furthermore, the number of Blacks killed since 2014**: 2014: Black-131; 2015: Black- 258; 2016: Black-234; 2017: Black-224; 2018: Black-229; 2019: Black-249; 2020: Black-237; for a total of 1562***. When considering the factors that 1562 is a national number over seven years, which includes thousands of American cities and towns; along with the factors that the numbers of 507 gun discharges, and 1.6 million arrests, which are for just ONE American city, even the national number of 1562 becomes extremely small…‘IF’ police were targeting Blacks! I repeat, the numbers of police shootings, and Black deaths nationally out to be exponentially higher, if it is true that “Police Target Black men!”
ii.If you divide the number 507 by 1.6 million, you get .000316875. This means, in the city of Houston, which is just one city in America, and which I can only assume is like every other American inner city, .000316875 represents the number of times police literally fired their guns during 1.6 million arrests! Another visual of this number is:
-3.1 times out of every 10,000 arrests, police fire their weapons; or
-31.6 times out of every 100,000 arrests, police shoot at people; or
-316.8 times out every 1 million arrests, police discharge their guns
How is this interpreted? Liberals argue “Police are racist!”; therefore, “White people are racist!”; therefore, “America is racist!” …based on the number .000316875—which is the number of times police discharge their weapons—in Houston—during 1.6 million arrests!!!! In other words, if we just consider one American city, and assume that other cities are similar, the number one piece of evidence liberals claim to prove America is racist: “Police Target Black Men!” is based upon the fact that 99.968% of the time police arrest people-- they do NOT even fire their weapons!
Okay…let me play the devil’s advocate! If you are thinking, Houston is only one city, what about the rest of America? Well, I’m sorry to report, the numbers only get worse for the “Police Target Black Men” crowd!!!
In 2019, there were 10,085,207 arrests in America; and 249 Blacks were killed by police*** in that same year. If we divide 249 by 10,085,207, we arrive at .0000246896. Obviously, this is a very small number, even smaller than the previous .000316875 number!!! How do we interpret .0000246896?
Based upon all police arrests of Americans in 2019, and the total number of Blacks killed by police, the chance that a police officer fires his weapon at a Black man during an arrest is .0000246896!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you want the Whites and Hispanics included, so be it! Based upon all police arrests of Americans in 2019, the chance of a police officer firing a gun at a White man during an arrest is .0000401578****!!!!! And, the chance of a police officer firing a gun at a Hispanic man during an arrest is .0000147741!!!!!****
Now…I can hear the haters screaming bloody murder: “You must use arrests by race—not total arrests!” I’m fully aware that if you separate the total number arrests: 10,085,207 by race—White arrests, Black arrests, and Hispanic arrests, my numbers above will change. However, the Bureau of Justice did not offer the arrests by race, so I only used the total arrests.
However, using the numbers of arrests by race ‘will’ bring my numbers down, but not by so much that my point is lost! For example, let’s choose a number of 7 million Black arrests. If this were the number of Black arrests, it would reflect that Blacks are being arrested more than Whites and Hispanics, therefore giving support to the idea that Police are racists! So, let’s do the math: 249/7,000,000 =.0000355714! In other words, if 7 million were true, liberals would conclude: “Police Target Black Men!” based upon the fact that .0000355714 of the time police fire their weapons at Blacks!!! To get a better visual, let’s reverse .0000355714. In other words, liberals conclude: “Police Target Black Men!” based upon the fact that 99.9999644286 of the time, police do not fire their weapons during arrests of Black men!!!
Let’s use 4 million: 249/4,000,000=.00006225! Or, 1 million arrests; 249/1,000,000=.0000249!
Regardless of what number you choose, the numbers do not lie! These numbers offer absolute proof, because none of them dip below the incredible number of 99% figure. In other words, over 99% of the time, police do ‘NOT’ fire their weapons during arrests!!
Yet…this is not the end!!!
In 2018, there were 61.5 million contacts between police and the American public. The total numbers in 2018 killed by police are: 990; White-454; Black-229; Hispanic-165, etc. Because I don’t have the contacts by race, if we use the total killed by police in 2018: 990, and divide it by 61.5 million, we arrive at .0000160976. How is this number interpreted? This tiny number means, of all the contacts between police and the American public (speeding tickets, tail-lights out, marriage spats, sporting events, conducting traffic, traffic accidents, and including arrests, etc.) the chance of a police officer killing an American is .0000160976!!! Or, using the inverse of this number means: 99.99839024% of the time when there is a contact between a police officer and an American, police do NOT kill!!!!
To declare that “Police Target Black Men” based upon the minute percentages presented in this piece, is not just controversial, it can only be designated as: irresponsible, intentional, and willful bias, i.e.propaganda!!!
*excluding Leap years.
**This is the year the Washington Post began publishing these numbers.
***See Tidbit 1 of this series
“Practice makes permanent; but, only perfect practice makes perfect! ” -Unknown